Increasing contact between people could lead to a rapid rise in cases and reducing contacts even slightly could set the province on a better trajectory for the coming months, when the rising cases in unvaccinated kids will likely spread to others, she said. The province said 86 per cent of eligible residents have one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine and 80 per cent have received both shots.ĭespite the positive overall trends, Sander described the pandemic situation in Ontario as a “tightrope.” Vaccines seem to have been effective at preventing infections and mobility among the population has stayed unexpectedly stable, she said. “Really what it comes down to is vaccines and contact,” Sander said in an interview. Ontario reported 466 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday and its daily infections have remained under 1,000 during the fourth wave.īeate Sander, a member of the advisory group and an infectious diseases researcher, said Ontario’s flat case rate was unexpected and though the factors behind the trend aren’t fully understood, there are some possible explanations.
The group cautioned that there’s uncertainty in their predictions because it’s too early to see the impact of in-person schooling and work resuming, and of people possibly spending more time indoors during cold weather. If transmission decreases 25 per cent, Ontario could see daily infections in the low hundreds. New models from the group show daily case counts could increase next month and into November, with more than 1,000 cases if the status quo in public behaviour and policy holds, and 5,000 cases daily if transmission increases significantly. While test positivity is down overall, that’s not the case for all age groups – infections are on the rise among young children who aren’t currently eligible for vaccination, the group said.Ĭases are also increasing in 19 out of 34 public health units, though large, dense regions like Toronto and Peel are reporting decreases, it said. The group noted that cases, hospitalizations and intensive care admissions are currently not increasing in the province as vaccination coverage grows.īut it noted that trends vary across the province.
“We’re OK for now, but we have no wiggle room.” “We’re walking a narrow ledge,” the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table said in an online statement. TORONTO - Public health measures and vaccinations have flattened the fourth wave of COVID-19 in Ontario but the situation remains fragile and unpredictable, the province’s science advisers said in a new report Tuesday.
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